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Launch Vehicle Market Potential

This study analyses the market potential of the Avio built ‘Mini launch vehicle’ (Mini LV), when operating from Spaceport-1 on the island of North Uist in the Outer Hebrides, and using mathematical modelling, attempts to forecast the market potential of the Mini LV from Spaceport-1, over the 10 year timeframe of 2020 – 2030.

The study output displays this predicted market potential in terms of the number of commercially supported launches of the Mini LV from Spaceport-1 occurring per annum, throughout the assessed time frame.

This study finds that the use of Mini LV as a launcher at the Spaceport-1 site is viable. By comparing and contrasting the results of two separately applied modeling techniques, the analysis suggests a likely minimum of around 3 launches per annum starting from 2020. Following the continued operation, and factoring for a potential peak after the expected introduction of an upgraded Mini LV in 2024, a normal launch rate of approximately 5 could be anticipated from Spaceport-1, which may rise depending on market conditions.

Note: The raw data for this study was supplied by Seradata Ltd., website: https://www.seradata.com/