UK SPACEPORT LAUNCH VEHICLE MARKET POTENTIAL

This study analyses the market potential of a generic small satellite (smallsat) orbital launch vehicle capable of launching a maximum of 250 kg (225 kg net after any corrective maneuvers are accounted for), when operating from UK vertical launch spaceports, and using mathematical modelling, attempts to forecast the market potential of a generic smallsat orbital launch vehicle from UK vertical launch spaceports, at low, medium and high cost per kilo price points, over the 10 year timeframe of 2020 – 2030.

The study output displays this predicted market potential in terms of the number of commercially supported launches of a generic smallsat orbital launch vehicle from UK vertical launch spaceports occurring per annum, throughout the assessed time frame.

This study finds that the use of a generic smallsat orbital launch vehicle as a launcher at UK vertical launch spaceport sites is viable. By comparing and contrasting the results of two separately applied modeling techniques, the analysis suggests a likely minimum of around 3 launches per annum starting from 2020. Following the continued operation, and factoring for a potential peak after the expected decrease in launch price of a generic smallsat orbital launch vehicle in 2024, a normal launch rate of approximately 5 could be anticipated from UK vertical launch spaceports, which may rise depending on market conditions.

Note: The raw data for this study was supplied by Seradata Ltd., website: https://www.seradata.com/